What are the current odds for METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September?

Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 1, 2026.

METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September

One-OffAI Tech

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.

Awaiting verified resolution

CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.

Current community forecast

No 94%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

May 10, 26, 8:44 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

94%

Yes

Rules

As reported by METR's point estimate, and using METR's cited date of release.

If an August announcement is made but not measured, I will wait until Dec 1 to resolve.
If updates to the testing set are made, e.g. TH1.2, we will use the latest iteration's numbers.
If METR reports 80% TH is 'likely greater than 10h' (or some threshold higher than 10h) but without a point estimate--as they did for Mythos 50% TH--this resolves yes.
If METR ceases to report or regularly test frontier models I will N/A. I may trade on this market.

Report a data issue with this market

METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September

One-OffAI Tech

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.

Awaiting verified resolution

CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.

Current community forecast

No 94%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

May 10, 26, 8:44 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

94%

Yes

Rules

As reported by METR's point estimate, and using METR's cited date of release.

If an August announcement is made but not measured, I will wait until Dec 1 to resolve.
If updates to the testing set are made, e.g. TH1.2, we will use the latest iteration's numbers.
If METR reports 80% TH is 'likely greater than 10h' (or some threshold higher than 10h) but without a point estimate--as they did for Mythos 50% TH--this resolves yes.
If METR ceases to report or regularly test frontier models I will N/A. I may trade on this market.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September?: Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 1, 2026.
When does METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September resolve?: METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026.
How is METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As reported by METR's point estimate, and using METR's cited date of release.

METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September

METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September

Frequently asked questions

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