[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
ChinaOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.5%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJul 10, 24, 10:57 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21869/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, the U.S. makes an official statement threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan, if Taiwan is attacked by an adversary.
- The question resolves as No otherwise.
- Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan? resolve?
- [Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is [Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?