Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2030, there is a clear consensus or official declaration in the scientific and medical communities that humans (or a specific human cohort) have achieved longevity escape velocity (LEV) (also known as "actuarial escape velocity").
- To resolve YES, at least one of the following conditions must be met before the cutoff date:
- Scientific Publication: A major, peer-reviewed scientific journal (such as Nature, Science, Cell, or Nature Aging) publishes a study or review concluding that a newly developed medical therapy (or suite of therapies) has successfully achieved longevity escape velocity for humans—defined as extending remaining life expectancy by more than one year for every calendar year that passes.
- Global Health Body Recognition: A major health organization (such as the World Health Organization) or regulatory body (such as the US FDA) officially approves or recognizes a class of rejuvenation therapies with the explicit statement that they enable longevity escape velocity in humans.
- Expert Consensus: A reputable, large-scale survey of biogerontologists or a recognized forecasting platform (such as Metaculus) officially resolves a corresponding question establishing that LEV has been achieved for humans.
