Current community forecast
In-flight Raptor re-light by Q2 2025 100%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Oct 29, 24, 6:43 AM UTCSep 2, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?
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PolymarketRules
This question is based on the following article by Eric Berger: https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/.
- Please see the article for more specifics about the scenario of each milestone.
- Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has updated the resolution criteria based on user feedback.
- The timing requirements for milestones have been clarified to use "before" rather than "by" for at least the first three items, addressing whether deadlines refer to the start or end of specified time periods.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
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- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship??
- Manifold Markets prices In-flight Raptor re-light by Q2 2025 at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship? resolve?
- Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship? is scheduled to resolve on September 2, 2028.
- How is Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question is based on the following article by Eric Berger: https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/.