Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2024 100%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 7, 24, 8:06 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Insomnia Cookies have declared bankruptcy by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsCEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRules
Crumbl Cookies survives as long as they
- Maintain storefronts branded as Crumbl Cookies or similar ("Crumble" would be acceptable, "Utah Baking Company" would not be) that sells cookies
- Have not filed for bankruptcy protection
- Have not been acquired by another company
- The market will resolve NO for a given year if any of the above criteria are not met, or if Crumbl Cookies ceases operations entirely.
- Resolves YES if they survive through the end of the year.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $98.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.9K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.1pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+49.5pt99%
- No-49.5pt1%
- Total Vol
- $24.7K
- 24h Vol
- $23.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In which years will Crumbl Cookies continue to survive??
- Manifold Markets prices 2024 at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does In which years will Crumbl Cookies continue to survive? resolve?
- In which years will Crumbl Cookies continue to survive? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is In which years will Crumbl Cookies continue to survive? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Crumbl Cookies survives as long as they