Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2026 71.3%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
45
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 29, 24, 8:09 PM UTCMar 8, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $471.2K
- 24h Vol
- $64.9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.1pt15.8%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+0.5pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $67K
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $80.4K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what year will OpenAI have a $1 Trillion market cap??
- Manifold Markets prices 2026 at 71% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does In what year will OpenAI have a $1 Trillion market cap? resolve?
- In what year will OpenAI have a $1 Trillion market cap? is scheduled to resolve on March 8, 2035.