Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Helped with >80% confidence 64.1%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 23, 2:17 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/
Open markets
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
- 24h Vol
- $100.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-11.0pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $262.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Anthropic market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances??
- Manifold Markets prices Helped with >80% confidence at 64% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? resolve?
- In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/