If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the S&P 500 close 2027 higher than it closed on November 3, 2026?
EquitiesOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 67.6%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:05 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 9:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index's official closing level on its last trading day of 2027 is higher than its official closing level on November 3, 2026 (Election Day).
- Resolves NO if it is equal or lower.
- Uses S&P Dow Jones Indices' published closes.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
