If an AI incident kills 100+ before 2030, will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals within 18 months?
One-OffRegulationAIUS Politics3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleSep 6, 26, 10:25 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Condition: before January 1, 2030, an AI-caused incident kills 100 or more people — a single incident or tightly connected series in which credible reporting attributes the deaths primarily to an AI system's actions or failures (accident, or misuse where AI provided decisive capability).
- Resolves N/A otherwise.
- Question: Given the condition, resolves YES if the US enacts binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force) within 18 months of the first such incident.
- Otherwise NO.
- P(regulation | warning shot): the selection edge that confounds naive regulation-conditioned catastrophe markets.
- Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe.
