Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.9%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJul 21, 23, 12:31 AM UTCJan 2, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
KalshiRules
This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/
- [link preview]
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt55.9%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.5%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.6K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? resolve?
- Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2100.
- How is Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems.