This market resolved: September 2026 1.345C or more and less than 1.395C (98.7%)
Resolved: Oct 9, 2026, 3:58 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
September 2026 less than 1.195C0.2%
September 2026 1.195C or more and less than 1.245C0.2%
September 2026 1.245C or more and less than 1.295C0.4%
September 2026 1.295C or more and less than 1.345C0.3%
September 2026 1.345C or more and less than 1.395C98.7%
September 2026 1.395C or more0.2%
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsWill the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?
Manifold MarketsWill the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Denver never have a below-average temperature year between 2020 and 2055?
Manifold MarketsWill the global average yield of rice exceed 4.75 metric tons per hectare for the 2027 marketing year?
ForecastExWill the global average yield of rice exceed 4.74 metric tons per hectare for the 2027 marketing year?
ForecastExRules
Data is currently at csv file or
- (or such updated location or updated version for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data see data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt )
- January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period.
- If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C.
- Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
- If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
