Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:33 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
1.275 degrees Celsius or more 56.9%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 26, 10:12 AM UTCJan 14, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Global Average Temperature Oct 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsWill the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?
Manifold MarketsWill Denver never have a below-average temperature year between 2020 and 2055?
Manifold MarketsWill the global average yield of rice exceed 4.75 metric tons per hectare for the 2027 marketing year?
ForecastExWill the global average yield of rice exceed 4.74 metric tons per hectare for the 2027 marketing year?
ForecastExWill the global average yield of rice exceed 4.78 metric tons per hectare for the 2027 marketing year?
ForecastExRules
Details of data is currently at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
- with a txt file with the data at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
- (or such updated location or updated version for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
- For this annual market, it is the J-D column for 2026 when that is shown after Dec 2026 data has been published.
- More options can be added but please keep these sensible.
- January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period.
