Current community forecast
Yes 64.6%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 8, 24, 7:51 PM UTCNov 30, 48, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
The increase in temperature will be calculated:
- a) taking NOAA-STAR satellite measurements of the temperature of the lower troposphere (see https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/) OR the most similar such data if this dataset is discontinued,
- b) calculating the slope and intercept of a least-squares affine fit of this data versus time (from November 1978 to November 2048),
- c) using that fit to calculate the change in temperature between 1978 and 2048.
- For reference, from Nov 1978 - Mar 2024, the anomaly has been 0.135 K/decade.
- The time elapsed has been 45.33 years.
