Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 14, 25, 2:36 AM UTCJan 2, 32, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Openwater (https://openwater.health) has a device that damages cancer cells selectively with ultrasound.
- This market will resolve YES if any cancer treatment using Openwater's ultrasound technology is approved by the FDA before January 1, 2032 for one or more cancer indications.
- Any FDA approval for treating cancer outside of a clinical trial counts, even if it only covers a small set of patients.
- If Openwater's technology gets transferred to another entity, use of that technology will count as long as it involves focused ultrasound.
- I have a blog post about the treatment here: https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2025/01/13/openwaters-cancer-treatment/
