Conditional on Twitter/X still existing, will Elon Musk be in control of it at EOY 2026?
One-OffBusiness & CorporateTech3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 96.2%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 24, 8:14 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
"Twitter/X still exists" means it is possible for people to make posts on and reference previous posts made on Twitter/X, no matter what it is named or who it is owned by at that point.
- If this is not the case, this market will resolve N/A. "Elon Musk is in control of Twitter/X" means that it is still possible for Musk to make arbitrary changes (eg starting Twitter Blue, changing the site's name, adding view/bookmark counts, etc) to the website with almost no obstacles.
- If Musk retains some power over Twitter/X, but others veto some of his decisions in practice, that counts as a NO resolution.
- Situations that would result in this market resolving YES:
- Musk is the outright CEO of Twitter/X
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $190.5K
- 24h Vol
- $190.5K
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt96%
- Apple-0.1pt3%
- Alphabet+0.2pt1%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt56.4%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.7%
- 90-114+2.1pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $211.6K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.2K
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Chewy active customers in Q2
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Conditional on Twitter/X still existing, will Elon Musk be in control of it at EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Conditional on Twitter/X still existing, will Elon Musk be in control of it at EOY 2026? resolve?
- Conditional on Twitter/X still existing, will Elon Musk be in control of it at EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Conditional on Twitter/X still existing, will Elon Musk be in control of it at EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "Twitter/X still exists" means it is possible for people to make posts on and reference previous posts made on Twitter/X, no matter what it is named or who it is owned by at that point.