Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastJan 1st 2050 40%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 22, 25, 1:03 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 2:02 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If the Whitehouse officially acknowledges that non-human intelligence exists and has been kept hidden from the public (official disclosure) all future dates will resolve "yes".
- As dates pass in the absence of official public acknowledgement, they will resolve "no".
- Update 2025-09-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For this market, non-human intelligence means intelligent life not created by modern human technology.
- A Yes includes official Whitehouse acknowledgement of: aliens (extraterrestrial, interdimensional, oceanic), angels, ancient artificial intelligence not created by modern humans, or a hidden fork of biological life.
- Recognition or rights granted to intelligence produced by modern AI research does not qualify.
- The acknowledgement must state that such intelligence exists and has been intentionally kept from the public.
