Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 74.6%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 4, 24, 2:10 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In 2027, will AI be able to generate a good "X-ing the technical interview" aphyr.com post?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, can AI perform translation as good as a human who is fluent in both languages but unskilled at translation?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
Towards the end of 2027, I will do a poll asking if the top tax AI are as good as an average accountant in preparing tax return for a typical household.
- Resolves Yes if over 50% of the respondant think that the top tax AI are as good as an average accountant in preparing tax return for a typical household
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt55.9%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.5%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.6K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant? resolve?
- By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Towards the end of 2027, I will do a poll asking if the top tax AI are as good as an average accountant in preparing tax return for a typical household.