Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 29, 23, 2:30 AM UTCJan 1, 64, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market solves to YES if the state called Republic of China, based in the island of Taiwan, has control of territory in mainland China.
- I'll rely on the facts on the ground.
- The land has to be in peace for this market to resolve to YES.
- If by market close they have disputed control or are in the process of taking control, this market resolves to NO.
- This market resolves to NO preemptively if the state of the Republic of China ceases to exist for 1 year.
- I'll rely in the mainstream media outlets.