Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB 66%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 14, 25, 2:29 PM UTCApr 15, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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Inspired by this Money Stuff column: One sentence of the 940-page [‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ passed last week] says gamblers can deduct only 90 percent of their annual losses, instead of 100 percent, which has been the norm.
- This has created a funny situation where sports predicting on markets like Kalshi is taxed as capital gains but sports betting on a traditional book like draftkings gets unfavorable treatment around deducting losses.
- All questions resolve on tax day 2027 unless otherwise stated.
- I'm open to moving the resolution date if something legal development is likely to get decided soon after.
- I'm interested in the short term impacts not the long term, so anything pending would have to apply to the 2026 tax year.
- If legal action takes place before resolution, I'll leave these open for some time to account for appeals.