Current community forecast
No 70.1%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 24, 4:51 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market made in response to this article.
- One-hour AGI: Beating humans at problem sets/exams, composing short articles or blog posts, executing most tasks in white-collar jobs (e.g., diagnosing patients, providing legal opinions), conducting therapy, etc. One-day AGI: Beating humans at negotiating business deals, developing new apps, running scientific experiments, reviewing scientific papers, summarizing books, etc. One-month AGI: Beating humans at carrying out medium-term plans coherently (e.g., founding a startup), supervising large projects, becoming proficient in new fields, writing large software applications (e.g., a new operating system), making novel scientific discoveries, etc. One-year AGI: These AIs would beat humans at basically everything.
- Mainly because most projects can be divided into sub-tasks that can be completed in shorter timeframes.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70.1% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. resolve?
- 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market made in response to this article.