🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026?

Trade PolicyDaily

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (2.5%)

Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 5:08 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 97.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Aug 14, 26, 7:53 PMAug 18, 26, 8:59 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes2.5%

No97.5%

97.5%

Yes

2.5%

Rules

Resolve YES if, before the new 50% U.S. tariffs on covered Canadian goods are scheduled to take effect on August 19, 2026, the United States and Canada officially announce an agreement that cancels, suspends, postpones, or materially reduces those tariffs.

An agreement in principle counts only if both governments officially confirm that it prevents or materially changes the scheduled August 19 tariffs.
Continuing negotiations, unofficial reports, or a unilateral statement that an agreement is “close” do not count.
Resolve NO if the tariffs take effect as scheduled without such an agreement.

🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026?

Trade PolicyDaily

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (2.5%)

Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 5:08 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 97.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Aug 14, 26, 7:53 PMAug 18, 26, 8:59 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes2.5%

No97.5%

97.5%

Yes

2.5%

Rules

An agreement in principle counts only if both governments officially confirm that it prevents or materially changes the scheduled August 19 tariffs.
Continuing negotiations, unofficial reports, or a unilateral statement that an agreement is “close” do not count.
Resolve NO if the tariffs take effect as scheduled without such an agreement.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for 🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026??: Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of August 20, 2026.
When does 🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026? resolve?: 🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on August 18, 2026.
How is 🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolve YES if, before the new 50% U.S. tariffs on covered Canadian goods are scheduled to take effect on August 19, 2026, the United States and Canada officially announce an agreement that cancels, suspends, postpones, or materially reduces those tariffs.

🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026?

🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports by August 19, 2026?

Frequently asked questions

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