Current community forecast
No 97.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleSep 5, 26, 5:56 AM UTCDec 20, 26, 9:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030?
Manifold MarketsMajority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC, a recognized scientific institution, observatory, SETI organization, or research team publicly announces the detection of a credible candidate signal or other technosignature that could plausibly originate from extraterrestrial intelligence and warrants further scientific investigation.
- The announcement does not need to confirm the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence.
- The candidate may later be determined to have a natural or human-made explanation.
- To qualify, the announcement must:
- β’ originate from, or be formally supported by, a recognized scientific or academic institution, observatory, SETI organization, or research team;
- β’ explicitly characterize the detection as a candidate or potential technosignature, potential evidence of extraterrestrial technology or intelligence, or an equivalent scientific characterization;
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanityβs Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for π½ Will scientists announce a credible potential signal from extraterrestrial intelligence before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does π½ Will scientists announce a credible potential signal from extraterrestrial intelligence before 2027? resolve?
- π½ Will scientists announce a credible potential signal from extraterrestrial intelligence before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 20, 2026.
- How is π½ Will scientists announce a credible potential signal from extraterrestrial intelligence before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC, a recognized scientific institution, observatory, SETI organization, or research team publicly announces the detection of a credible candidate signal or other technosignature that could plausibly originate from extraterrestrial intelligence and warrants further scientific investigation.