![π Improve my bread? π [ADD OPTIONS]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252Fdefault%252FqUqhg0h2Ql.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Df978e3d8-b66c-45f6-a5ae-88c9fa1fe3f5&w=128&q=80)
Current community forecast
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min 100%Leader of 135 outcomes
Forecasters
360
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
May 22, 25, 7:43 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 10:36 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Improve my game π [ADD OPTIONS]
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Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will it rain on Sep 21, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 21, 2026?
KalshiRules
If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO
- If the change is distinguishable AND is better, resolves YES
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does not greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves NO
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves YES
- If I determine the change is too difficult (I have my own mill but sifting by hand could be maybe too tedious?, stuff like grow my own wheat), I am liable to resolve that option N/A
- If I determine the change departs too far from the categories "bread" or "loaf of bread" (such as suggesting I make a bread bowl with split pea soupπ or a BLT π or cinnamon rolls π), resolves N/A
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.7pt68.6%
- ChatGPT+2.9pt15.2%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.7M
- 24h Vol
- $144.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+10.0pt75%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+36.2pt72.6%
- September 22-17.6pt10.5%
- No release by September 30-8.4pt4.2%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $184.4K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 more outcomes
- Will Anthropicβs valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for π Improve my bread? π [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Manifold Markets prices Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min at 100% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does π Improve my bread? π [ADD OPTIONS] resolve?
- π Improve my bread? π [ADD OPTIONS] is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is π Improve my bread? π [ADD OPTIONS] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO