KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 79%
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$508.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
78.0% / 84.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If the FDA's decision on Venglustat by Sanofi in 2026 is a full approval or an accelerated approval, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:AppliedXL
- This market will resolve to No if the FDA's decision is a denial (CRL issued), a withdrawal by the sponsor, or a conditional approval — or if no decision is issued.
- Venglustat is an oral small-molecule drug developed by Sanofi that works by slowing down the body's production of a fatty substance called glucosylceramide, which builds up to harmful levels in people with Gaucher disease — think of it like adjusting a factory's output dial rather than cleaning up the mess after the fact.
- It belongs to a class called substrate reduction therapy (SRT), meaning it targets the upstream source of the problem rather than replacing a missing enzyme.
- Because it is a small molecule taken by mouth and designed to cross into the brain, it has potential to address the neurological symptoms that older enzyme-based treatments cannot reach.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for FDA decision: Venglustat by Sanofi (in 2026)?
- Kalshi prices Yes at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does FDA decision: Venglustat by Sanofi (in 2026) resolve?
- FDA decision: Venglustat by Sanofi (in 2026) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is FDA decision: Venglustat by Sanofi (in 2026) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the FDA's decision on Venglustat by Sanofi in 2026 is a full approval or an accelerated approval, the market resolves to Yes.