KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.79% or above (99%)
Resolved: Sep 14, 2026, 11:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 14, 2026, 10:18 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
4.77% or above79%
4.71% or above96%
4.67% or above99%
4.87% or above1%
4.69% or above99%
4.79% or above99%
4.79% or aboveWon
4.77% or aboveLost
4.71% or aboveLost
4.73% or aboveLost
4.61% or aboveLost
4.63% or aboveLost
4.65% or aboveLost
4.67% or aboveLost
4.69% or aboveLost
4.75% or aboveLost
4.85% or aboveLost
4.83% or aboveLost
4.81% or aboveLost
4.87% or aboveLost
4.89% or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.60% on Sep 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 14, 2026, or one week following Sep 14, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.62% on Sep 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.64% on Sep 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.66% on Sep 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.68% on Sep 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.