KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 5.23% or above (99%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 10:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
5.29% or above4%
5.27% or above34%
5.23% or above99%
5.17% or above96%
5.25% or above76%
5.21% or above78%
5.19% or above89%
5.03% or above99%
5.05% or above99%
5.01% or above99%
5.15% or above99%
5.07% or above99%
5.09% or above99%
5.11% or above99%
5.13% or above99%
5.23% or aboveWon
5.17% or aboveLost
5.21% or aboveLost
5.03% or aboveLost
5.05% or aboveLost
5.01% or aboveLost
5.07% or aboveLost
5.09% or aboveLost
5.19% or aboveLost
5.15% or aboveLost
5.11% or aboveLost
5.13% or aboveLost
5.25% or aboveLost
5.27% or aboveLost
5.31% or aboveLost
5.29% or aboveLost
5.33% or aboveLost
5.35% or aboveLost
5.37% or aboveLost
5.39% or aboveLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.00% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 29, 2026, or one week following Sep 29, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.02% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.04% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.06% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.08% on Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.