KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Dec 1, 2026 20%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$153.3
Liquidity
$59.3
Low liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 12:00 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
If a new AI safety agreement between the U.S. and Chinese governments is formally announced after Issuance and reported by any of the Source Agencies the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- An announcement must state that both governments have reached agreement and identify at least one specific agreed measure to assess, prevent, reduce, or respond to harm from AI systems or their misuse.
- The measure must specify an action, restriction, standard, procedure, or research or operational arrangement that one or both governments agree to undertake or support.
- A preliminary agreement, agreement in principle, or framework qualifies if it meets this test; signing, final text, ratification, legal enforceability, and implementation are not required.
- A formal announcement must appear in an official agreement text, communiqué, readout, press release, or other written government statement announcing or confirming the agreement, or be made by an authorized government representative at a government press conference or briefing, leaders' summit, signing ceremony, or formal address.
- An announcement by either government that expressly states both governments have agreed is sufficient.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. and China announce an AI safety agreement??
- Kalshi prices Before Dec 1, 2026 at 20% as of September 18, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. and China announce an AI safety agreement? resolve?
- Will the U.S. and China announce an AI safety agreement? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is Will the U.S. and China announce an AI safety agreement? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a new AI safety agreement between the U.S. and Chinese governments is formally announced after Issuance and reported by any of the Source Agencies the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.