KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current implied probability
Above 65% 99%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$27.7K
Liquidity
$24K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 17, 26, 5:00 PM UTCSep 19, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
1%
1%
1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Open Source market share on Sep 24th
KalshiTop Open Source AI this week
Kalshi2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)
Manifold MarketsWill open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 18, 2026 is above 65%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards
- This event resolves using the Open Weights percentage in Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart.
- At 10:00 AM ET on Sep 19, 2026, Kalshi will use the chart's updated value for Sep 18, 2026.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Vercel.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 18, 2026 is above 67.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-8.5pt77%
- December 15,-20.5pt62%
- November 30,-26.5pt51%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $201.8K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-0.1pt12.8%
- Gemini+2.1pt9.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 23.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 22.7%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $178.6K
- 24h Vol
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.5%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 5.6%+44.0pt91%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $197.4K
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $231.8K
- 24h Vol
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
- Top Text to Speech AI this week
- Top Text to Image AI this week
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
- Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Open Source market share on Sep 18th?
- Kalshi prices Above 65% at 99% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Open Source market share on Sep 18th resolve?
- Open Source market share on Sep 18th is scheduled to resolve on September 19, 2026.
- How is Open Source market share on Sep 18th settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 18, 2026 is above 65%, then the market resolves to Yes.