Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jul 2026?

RegulationOne-OffTrade Policy Politics US Politics Election27d

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 36%

Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$57.7

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

37.0% / 38.0%

Spread

2.7%

Tight spread

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jul 1, 26, 2:00 PMAug 1, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes36%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If the President announces a new trade deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
New arrangements include, but are not limited to:

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Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?

$311.7

Critical minerals: 39%

KALSHI

Will Trump order tariffs in Jul 2026?

$486

Yes: 57%

KALSHI

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

$2K

Yes: 13.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

$6.3K

Before 2027: 9%

KALSHI

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$63,318.36+1.87%

EthereumETH$1,804.10+3.88%

SolanaSOL$82.57+1.05%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0791+2.93%

XRPXRP$1.18+5.39%

BNBBNB$578.60+1.85%

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Rules

If the President announces a new trade deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
New arrangements include, but are not limited to:

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jul 2026?

RegulationOne-OffTrade Policy Politics US Politics Election27d

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 36%

Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$57.7

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

37.0% / 38.0%

Spread

2.7%

Tight spread

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jul 1, 26, 2:00 PMAug 1, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes36%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If the President announces a new trade deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
New arrangements include, but are not limited to:

Related Markets

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

$1K

Yes: 8.7%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?

$66

Yes: 38.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?

$311.7

Critical minerals: 39%

KALSHI

Will Trump order tariffs in Jul 2026?

$486

Yes: 57%

KALSHI

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

$2K

Yes: 13.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

$6.3K

Before 2027: 9%

KALSHI

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$63,318.36+1.87%

EthereumETH$1,804.10+3.88%

SolanaSOL$82.57+1.05%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0791+2.93%

XRPXRP$1.18+5.39%

BNBBNB$578.60+1.85%

Related News

Crypto ATM bans, restrictions now in effect in Tennessee and GeorgiaCointelegraph

Europe is rewriting its landmark crypto rulebook MiCA as hard July 1 deadline passesCoindesk

Taiwan Passes Sweeping Crypto Law With Licensing, Stablecoin RulesDecrypt

Last-minute MiCA approvals mark end of EU transition periodCointelegraph

Europe’s MiCA crypto regime is fully in force: Here’s who wins and losesThe Block

Utorg Obtains MiCA License as July 1 Deadline Forces Much of the Industry Out of EuropeBlockchain Reporter

Rules

If the President announces a new trade deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
New arrangements include, but are not limited to: