KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 57%-4.0%
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$669
Liquidity
$2.4K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
57.0% / 58.0%
Spread
1.8%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 1, 26, 2:00 PMAug 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes57%
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If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.