KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jul 7, 2026 5%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$13.6K
Liquidity
$205K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
25.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jun 25, 26, 8:30 PMJul 7, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jul 7, 20265%
Also available on Manifold Markets
GPT 5.6 release date?
Closed
0%
0%
0%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast85 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$22.3K
24h Vol$0
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
GPT-5.6 released by...?
0.4%26d
+0.5%99%
+0.9%97%
-1.4%97%
+17 more outcomes
77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.5M
24h Vol$82.2K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
GPT 5.6 released by…?
5mo
0%
0%
0%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast61 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$48.7K
24h Vol$104.5
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jun 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jun 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jun 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jul 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jun 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jun 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jun 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater before Jul 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.