KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Before Jul 10, 2026 (99%)
Resolved: Jul 9, 2026, 7:06 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Before Jul 10, 2026 99%+1.0ptLeader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$93.4K
Liquidity
$333.8K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 46 days ago
StaleJun 22, 26, 10:00 PMJul 10, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
Before Jul 10, 202699%
Before Jul 15, 202687%
Before Jun 26, 20261%
99%
99%
99%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Rules
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Open markets
AI
GEMINIBTC price on August 24
- $77,500 or above99%
- $77,250 or above97%
- $77,750 or above96%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.1K
- 24h Vol
- $70K
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T+0.2pt98%
+10 more outcomes
GEMINIChelsea vs Fulham
- Chelsea92.7%
- Tie5.9%
- Fulham1.5%
- Total Vol
- $52.2K
- 24h Vol
- $51.8K
POLYMARKETIn which month will Anthropic IPO?
- October 2026+4.0pt76%
- September 2026-0.5pt14.6%
- November 2026-4.8pt4.2%
+14 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+0.5pt91%
- October 31,82%
- October 15,+12.0pt59%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.9pt65.4%
- ChatGPT+1.8pt12.5%
- Grok-3.7pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.3M
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Top AI model in August
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Highest temperature in Miami on August 24, 2026?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will OpenAI release GPT-5.6??
- Kalshi prices Before Jul 10, 2026 at 99% as of July 9, 2026.
- When does When will OpenAI release GPT-5.6? resolve?
- When will OpenAI release GPT-5.6? is scheduled to resolve on July 10, 2026.
- How is When will OpenAI release GPT-5.6? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-5.6 or greater the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.