KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
74.0% / 82.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any EU country have an agreement with external countries to study asylum seeker applications abroad by end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) begins accepting applications from the public after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only reporting from the European Commission qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Applications must be open on the European Union's own official ETIAS platform, and a limited or phased opening counts provided any eligible traveler can apply.
- The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: An announced future start date, including one set by decision in the Official Journal Testing, or a pilot restricted to carriers, staff or officials Applications collected by a commercial or third-party website The later date on which an ETIAS becomes required for entry
Open markets
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.9pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.3pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $728.7K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $967.7K
- 24h Vol
- $113.3K
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+1.5pt79.2%
- SPD-1.5pt20.8%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson76.7%
- Ulf Kristersson+1.0pt21.4%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.8pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the EU's ETIAS accept applications before 2028??
- Kalshi prices No at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the EU's ETIAS accept applications before 2028? resolve?
- Will the EU's ETIAS accept applications before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will the EU's ETIAS accept applications before 2028? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) begins accepting applications from the public after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.