KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 3.90M (96%)
Resolved: Sep 10, 2026, 2:49 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 10, 2026, 1:57 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Above 4.30M10%
Above 4.20M18%
Above 4.40M1%
Above 3.90M96%
Above 4.00M99%
Above 4.10M29%
Above 4.00MLost
Above 3.70MLost
Above 3.80MLost
Above 3.90MWon
Above 4.10MLost
Above 4.20MLost
Above 4.30MLost
Above 4.40MLost
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If US existing home sales for August 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR) data.