KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 89%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 10.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHIConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
- Above 3,500 units-1.0pt88%
- Above 4,000 units-4.0pt66%
- Above 4,500 units-29.0pt19%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.3K
- 24h Vol
- $24.4K
KALSHIPennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.260099%
- Above 4.265099%
- Above 4.270098%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.3K
- 24h Vol
- $11.6K
KALSHIHousing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
- Above 1,700 units-4.0pt82%
- Above 1,600 units-11.0pt80%
- Above 1,800 units-5.0pt68%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhat will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?
- $518K - $524K+1.8pt31.5%
- $524K - $530K+13.8pt25%
- $530K - $536K-21.3pt15.7%
POLYMARKETWhat will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?
- $1.153M - $1.169M+14.6pt37%
- $1.137M - $1.153M-6.0pt31%
- <$1.137M-25.6pt14%
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate-3.0pt86.8%
- Hike 25bps+4.0pt7.5%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5K
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- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US defaults before 2029??
- Kalshi prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US defaults before 2029? resolve?
- US defaults before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is US defaults before 2029? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.