KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore 2029 17%-3.0%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.4K
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
16.0% / 20.0%
Spread
25.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 9:00 PMJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before 202917%
Volume trend
$2.4kJul 75d of dataJul 12
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If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments