KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 10:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before 2030 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Before 2030 55.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before 2030 55.5%Market quality
16 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$1.1K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before 2030Spread
—
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 7, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before 2030
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China abolish hukou?
KalshiIf birth rates continue to decline, the year that GDP leading governments will ban abortion to increase birth rates.
Manifold MarketsXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketTaipei Mayor Election Winner
PolymarketHighest temperature in Beijing on October 29?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRules
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the government of the People's Republic of China
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2030
- If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2029
- If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2028
- If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.