KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Above 4.67%Awaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
Above 4.68%Awaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
Above 4.69%Awaiting result
Before close: 99% ·
Above 4.70%Awaiting result
Before close: 96% ·
Above 4.71%Awaiting result
Before close: 48% ·
Above 4.75%Awaiting result
Before close: 1% ·
Above 4.73%Awaiting result
Before close: 4% ·
Above 4.74%Awaiting result
Before close: 1% ·
Above 4.63%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 4.64%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 4.65%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 4.66%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 4.72%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 4.76%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Above 4.77%Awaiting result
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Pyth - 2Y UST
- Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4.67%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.67% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.68%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.68% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.69%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.69% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.70%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.70% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.71%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.71% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.75%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.75% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.73%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.73% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.74%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.74% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.63%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.63% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.64%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.64% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.65%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.65% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.66%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.66% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.72%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.72% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.76%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.76% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.77%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.77% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.