Target Yield: 4.78452%
KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningNot meaningfully pricedStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 2:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
NoLost
YesWon
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Pyth - 2Y UST
- The market resolves based on the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick for 2-year U.S. Treasury ending at 11:00 AM EDT on Oct 21, 2026. The 2-year U.S. Treasury refers to the US2Y, the current on-the-run benchmark of the 2-year U.S. Treasury Note as identified on the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 5 decimal places. Yields are expressed as annualized percentages. The opening target and settlement yield each use the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick immediately preceding their observation time. For a 4:45–5:00 PM EDT market, the opening target uses the candle timestamped 4:44 PM, ending at 4:45 PM; settlement uses the candle timestamped 4:59 PM, ending at 5:00 PM. Candlesticks are timestamped by their start time. If reliable Pyth data is unavailable, the contract’s no-data provisions apply.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.