KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No (57%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
NoWon
YesLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the close yield (%) of the 1-minute Pyth candlestick for 10-year U.S. Treasury ending at 5:00 PM EDT on Oct 22, 2026 is at least 4.95917, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - 10Y UST
- The market resolves based on the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick for 10-year U.S. Treasury ending at 5:00 PM EDT on Oct 22, 2026.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury refers to the US10Y, the current on-the-run benchmark of the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note as identified on the Source Agency.
- Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
- The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 5 decimal places.
- Yields are expressed as annualized percentages.