Data quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 2:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
7,200 or above 99%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Mar 3, 26, 11:37 AMDec 31, 26, 9:00 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
7,200 or above99%
Compare venues· 7,600 or above
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall88% match · auto | Medium | 100% | 0pt | $3.3K | $405K | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
 GeminiThis page | Low | 81% | -19pt | $0 | $0 | 15 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
How high will the S&P get this year?
0.8 pts5mo
100%
+0.8pt56%
+4.5pt45%
+5 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$926.7K
24h Vol$3.3K
KALSHIRules
How high will the S&P get this year?
- If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7,200, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from For example, Google Finance.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F13749dfcb87e4ecc8d88c9cdf3d5cea9?alt=media&token=4907b68a-a6c5-4e1a-973f-6af20fe9d50c&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 8,400, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 8,800, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.1k75.0%KALSHI7,800 or above — No8d ago
KALSHI7,800 or above — No8d agoRelated Markets
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$6.3KSpaceX: 86%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by July 31?
$5.9K↓$1.05T: 16%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$3.4K↑$1.1T: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?
$1.3KYes: 65%KALSHI
KALSHI
Rivian total vehicles delivered in 2026
$200Above 48000: 92%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?
$30Yes: 11.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
NVIDIA Vera CPU Powers Faster Chip Design for Next-Gen GPUsBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA, Applied Materials Accelerate Semiconductor InnovationBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA (NVDA) Expands Toolkit With PhysicsNeMo and CUDA-XBlockchain.News
NAVER, NVIDIA, Brookfield to Triple Korea AI Factory to 200 MW by 2028Blockchain.News
SK Group Partners with NVIDIA to Advance AI Infrastructure via $500B InvestmentBlockchain Reporter
Bitcoin price teeters on trendline support after tech liquidation sparks profit-takingCrypto NewsRules
How high will the S&P get this year?
- If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7,200, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from For example, Google Finance.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F13749dfcb87e4ecc8d88c9cdf3d5cea9?alt=media&token=4907b68a-a6c5-4e1a-973f-6af20fe9d50c&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 8,400, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 8,800, then the market resolves to Yes.