Data quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 13, 2026, 5:58 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
7,400 or above 98.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Mar 3, 26, 11:37 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 9:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketHow high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026?
KalshiNasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
KalshiWhat will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description)
Manifold MarketsRules
How high will the S&P get this year?
- If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7,400, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from For example, Google Finance.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F13749dfcb87e4ecc8d88c9cdf3d5cea9?alt=media&token=4907b68a-a6c5-4e1a-973f-6af20fe9d50c&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7,600, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7,200, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — How high will the S&P get this year? · 7,800 or above 99%
Open markets
EquitiesPOLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-4.5pt57%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $34.8K
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-1.0pt2%
- <500B-0.1pt0%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 8,000 to 8,199.9916.7%
- 7,800 to 7,999.9914.8%
- 7,600 to 7,799.99-1.0pt11.1%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.7M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA-3.0pt73.3%
- Apple+0.4pt17.8%
- Alphabet+1.0pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt22.9%
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.3pt20.9%
- $1.75–$2.0T+3.0pt20%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOura IPO Closing Market Cap
- $20B+-11.5pt31.1%
- $15B–$17.5B+8.0pt26.2%
- $17.5B–$20B-4.5pt20.4%
+5 more outcomes
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- STRC hits $100 by…
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 14, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will the S&P get this year??
- Gemini prices 7,400 or above at 99% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does How high will the S&P get this year? resolve?
- How high will the S&P get this year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How high will the S&P get this year? settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: How high will the S&P get this year?
- Where else is How high will the S&P get this year? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.