PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
December 31, 3%+0.1pt
Marktqualitat
57 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
3,7 €
Liquidität
15.213,6 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
2.0% / 3.3%
Spread
1.3 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
1
7d-Änderung
+0.8 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
13. Feb. 26, 00:08 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
0%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) be convicted of a crime before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
PolymarketWill Zhang Youxia re-appear in public, alive, by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
- Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 512.631,6 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 266.473,7 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 56,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 170.430,2 €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Jimmy Lai released by which date??
- Polymarket bewertet December 31, mit 3% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Jimmy Lai released by which date? entschieden?
- Jimmy Lai released by which date? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Jimmy Lai released by which date? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.