Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 57%
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet8. Apr. 26, 02:01 UTC31. Dez. 30, 01:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kazakhstan get a nuclear bomb before end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegeln
Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity during a conflict, and this detonation is widely characterized by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, The New York Times) as the catalyst that ends that specific, ongoing, large-scale armed conflict.
- This market resolves NO if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity and is reported by major international news outlets as the precipitating event that initiates or significantly escalates a new, worldwide, or multi-national conflict.
- "Hostile capacity" excludes controlled nuclear tests.
- A "test gone wrong" resulting in damage or loss of life in another sovereign territory that leads to a conflict will count as the beginning of a conflict.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 57% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? entschieden?
- Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)