FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 94%
Nein 94%Marktqualitat
32 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
627,9 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
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Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kazakhstan get a nuclear bomb before end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
This event predicts whether South Korea will possess at least one operational nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be authoritative confirmations from the South Korean government, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or other internationally recognized bodies confirming possession of a nuclear weapon.
- If authoritative sources confirm that South Korea possesses an operational nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Public statements, political debate, or hypothetical discussions about nuclear armament will not count.
- If confirmation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing authoritative assessments.