Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?
GeopolitikOne-OffRussland / Ukraine13J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 61.7%
Prognostiker
46
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet13. Feb. 24, 03:28 UTC1. Jan. 40, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia launch a military invasion of Kazakhstan by 2033?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following counties will have an inbound maritime oil delivery disrupted by a military attack prior to 2028?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Inspired by @XYZ_RGB's question, thank you making the example.
- Resolves YES if Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029. "Kinetic military action" excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources.
- It includes shooting projectiles, and deploying troops or military vehicles inside Poland.
- We will ignore accidents with stray missiles such as this one.
- Resolves NO in 2040-Jan if no kinetic military attack happens.