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Veraltet16. Jan. 24, 21:05 UTC17. Dez. 00, 21:40 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsDid most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation?
Manifold MarketsWill the Dodo bird be de-extinct by the end of 2028?
FutuurExtinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027?
FutuurWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegeln
In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.
- He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
Offene Märkte
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 58,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 460.882,7 €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20276%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 29,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+6.0pt86%
- Yes-6.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 20.174,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5352,6 €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030+0.1pt71%
- Before 2029+0.1pt30%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 257.215,7 €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0-8.0pt31%
- Above 1-2.0pt13%
- Above 2-4.0pt6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+1.0pt51%
- Before 203247%
- Before 203030%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 118.751,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2114,6 €
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 82% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Humans go extinct by 2200? entschieden?
- Will Humans go extinct by 2200? soll am 17. Dezember 2200 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Humans go extinct by 2200? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.