Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 79.3%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet14. Apr. 26, 18:13 UTC14. Apr. 00, 18:08 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.
- This market will resolve YES if there is strong evidence that a majority of people who were cryopreserved before 2026 spent at least 24 hours after legal death but before having their remains vitrified at cryogenic temperatures.
- It will resolve NO if there is strong evidence that a majority were cryopreserved with less than a day's wait time.
- I won't resolve until there is clear, unambiguous evidence about how it should resolve.
- I also won't bet.
Offene Märkte
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 28.124,7 €
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 21.510 €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.5pt93.1%
- Yes+0.5pt6.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 944.924,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 8176,6 €
KALSHIWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- Kenya14%
- India6%
- Ethiopia-2.0pt5%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22.382,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 600061%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 882.869,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1674,1 €
KALSHIWill 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?
- On Nov 13, 202696%
- On Mar 13, 202789%
- On Nov 19, 202786%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 16.329,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1316,5 €
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- Pandemic in 2026?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 79% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? entschieden?
- Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? soll am 14. April 3000 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.