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Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet14. Aug. 24, 15:29 UTC15. Aug. 29, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity go extinct before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Humans go extinct by 2200?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
I have seen predictions that closed source software will be "extinct" within five years (August 14, 2029).
- Will that happen?
- Resolves based on my personal judgment, as to whether closed source software is "extinct" within five years.
- Can resolve early.
- Since this is a subjective question, I will not bet in it.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 63.645,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 63.644,2 €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,5 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 27.401,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 27.401,3 €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)? entschieden?
- Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)? soll am 15. August 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I have seen predictions that closed source software will be "extinct" within five years (August 14, 2029).