Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 96%
Prognostiker
81
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet10. Juli 23, 20:48 UTC2. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Humans go extinct by 2200?
Manifold MarketsMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiWill RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?
Manifold MarketsWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
KalshiRegeln
If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.
- For this question, we'll define humans the same as this Metaculus question:
- as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring.
- (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count).
- Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will humanity go extinct before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 96% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will humanity go extinct before 2030? entschieden?
- Will humanity go extinct before 2030? soll am 2. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will humanity go extinct before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.
