Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
GeopolitikOne-OffChina1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 66.8%
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet29. März 26, 13:43 UTC31. Dez. 27, 15:59 UTC
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Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves to YES if, before 2027, reliable media or official sources confirm that vessels belonging to the People's Republic of China (PRC) have physically boarded and inspected a commercial merchant ship en route to Taiwan.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- To resolve YES, ALL of the following conditions must be met:
- The Actor (Who is boarding?): The boarding must be conducted by official PRC state vessels or personnel.
- This includes the China Coast Guard (CCG), the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), or the Maritime Safety Administration (MSA).