Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 96% (Stand: 8. September 2026).

Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?

GeopolitikOne-Off3Mon

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 95.9%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden

Veraltet

7. Jan. 26, 13:22 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Verwandte Märkte

Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.

Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

Manifold Markets

Nuclear war in next 5 years?

Manifold Markets

Will Iran have a civil war before the start of 2028?

Manifold Markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

Polymarket

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

Polymarket

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Polymarket

Regeln

Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any use of nuclear weapons in combat, even accidental, counts as nuclear war for the purpose of this market.

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?

GeopolitikOne-Off3Mon

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 95.9%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden

Veraltet

7. Jan. 26, 13:22 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Verwandte Märkte

Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.

Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

Manifold Markets

Nuclear war in next 5 years?

Manifold Markets

Will Iran have a civil war before the start of 2028?

Manifold Markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

Polymarket

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

Polymarket

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Polymarket

Regeln

Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any use of nuclear weapons in combat, even accidental, counts as nuclear war for the purpose of this market.

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

Häufige Fragen

Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026??: Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 96% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
Wann wird Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026? entschieden?: Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
Wie wird Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026? abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any use of nuclear weapons in combat, even accidental, counts as nuclear war for the purpose of this market.

Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?

Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?

Häufige Fragen

Offene Märkte

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?